Thursday, March 3, 2011

Oil Versus S&P

!! Jack Steiman, On Playing the (Up)Trend, but Never Letting Your
Guard Down (SwingTradeOnline) !!

The market could beyond doubt use more promotion across the board to
unwind things on those oscillators to oversold. No guarantee we get
it, but the line in the sand is clearly drawn here. The Nasdaq is
being protected by the 20-day exponential moving average down to the
50-day with gaps as well to help out while that huge open gap down at
2808 is capping things on the way up.

In other words 2715 to 2770 is protecting the downside from getting
out of hand, while 2808 is putting the breaks on things. So how does
one play such as market? Well it's pretty simple really. The closer
you get to support, and as long as the oscillators align properly, the
simpler it is to go long. You don't really want to small very much, if
at all, because the primary trend is higher. The closer we get to 2808
the more you lighten up on ancient plays and refrain from taking on
new ones. Only a strong, clear above 2808 changes that picture. Buy
weakness. Lighten up at resistance.

Will this market ever have a stronger pullback? Very possible, and
still in play for sure, but when studying the charts, you can see why
that's been a hard thing for the bears to accomplish. There are so
many open gaps on the way up along with those strong moving averages
that it's vacant to take some further than consequence unforeseen to
get this market to take out some of those support areas. It can be the
Jobs Report this Friday. It can be some civil unrest from overseas. No
way to know for sure, but this market won't just quit for the sake of
being overbought, it appears. It's vacant to need a strong further
than catalyst.

If the market would allow at least the Nasdaq to break decently below
its 50-day exponential moving average now at 2720, the bears would be
able to rush in and take things down quicker and harder. This would
set up a much better, more aggressive buying opportunity. This market
could use a healthful dose of dread, but who knows when we'll get it.
We'll get it, but does it come from here or Nasdaq 3000? No one knows
for sure, but we have to be on alert since it could come at any
moment. Play the trend in place, but never let your guard down.

When looking at the next huge go to come you have to recognize where
the critical junctures are. There's no inquiry it's the 50-day
exponential moving average on the Nasdaq. Sure, the 20-day exponential
moving average is first in line at 2771. Then the gap at 2751. But in
truth the bears will have done nothing if they can't take out the
50-day exponential moving average. That's permanently the line in the
sand. So if you're bearish, there's no reason to celebrate if you can
remove 2771 on a closing basis. Only 2720 will do that trick.

For the bulls, only when we can blow through 2808 can you start to
feel you have something to get excited about. But that's just step
one. That's the bottom of the gap and not the top of the gap.
Ultimately, the top of the gap will have to be taken out. The bottom
is vital because it was on such a huge gap down, and we did fail ten
points below that level today. But, the top of the gap is at 2833.
Like I said, a huge gap.
Everything in between is noise. Again, buy on weakness. I wouldn't
small much right here near the top because we're in that primary bull
market -- thus, adapt to where we are and play appropriately and
you'll do just fine.

!! Mike Paulenoff, On Oil Versus S&P (MPTrader) !!

Away from each other from everyone's thing on Bernanke's Congressional
testimony later Tuesday morning, which certainly has potential to be a
market moving consequence, let's notice the patterns that have
developed in WTI and Brent nearby oil futures.

Both price structures have carved out sideways coil-type formations
since last Thursday, which could represent either bullish or bearish
continuation patterns. In that the coils have emerged well below last
week's highs, my inclination is to handle them as potential bearish
continuation patterns, which by definition should break to the
downside, violating key near term support at $95 (WTI) and at $109.60

Such a scenario presumably will have a positive impact on the S&P
500-- all else being equal. That said, but, in the geopolitically
charged world in which we currently find ourselves, anticipatory
sample analysis goes just so far. If circumstances in Libya or
elsewhere in the Mid-East suddenly flare up, and oil hurdles key near
term resistance at $100 WTI and $115 Brent, then we should brace
ourselves for a run at the prior highs, and that likely will have a
negative impact on the S&P.

Yes, lots of moving parts out there today which will require us to be
watching and listening closely in the upcoming hours.

!! Sinisa Persich, On our Free Stock Pick: VZ (TraderHR) !!

Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) today broke out of a bullish pennant
formation on a confirmation one-day gain this year of 2.64%. The stock
had been in consolidation for nearly two months after a fantastic
performance in December.

Today's go initiated new momentum which will doubtless test the
52-week high in the 37.50 area. It's also likely VZ will see a go even
further than that level to the next resistance area, which is set at

Preferred access (buy stop) price is at 37.10, with a stop-loss price
at 36.25.

!! Harry Boxer, On 4 Charts to Watch (TheTechTrader) !!

The market continues to press higher despite a midday sell off Monday.
They closed with solid gains for the day with technicals better on
NYSE than Nasdaq. Nasdaq was kind of sloppy and may be some cause for
We'll just have to see how it goes. In a day or so we may look at the
small side, but for now stocks still continue to look strong.

Allot Communications Ltd. (ALLT) is in a gorgeous rising channel, and
has been for months now. It finally broke out of its 2-week flag on a
sharp thrust in volume, nearly 750,000 shares, up 1.13, or 7.6%. A
clean breakout should lead this up toward the 18 1/2 - 19 zone. That's
our next trading target.

Coeur d`Alene Mines Corporation (CDE) had a huge day Monday, breaking
across a key level of resistance with a thrust in volume. It traded
the heaviest volume in a very long time, 8.6 million, up 3.86, or
nearly 14%. That's the highest price that stock has closed in about
three years. At this point I'm looking for a go into the mid 30s.

Royale Energy Inc. (ROYL) is one of the strongest in the junior oils.
While some of the others have backed off, this stock continues to go
higher, success my target of 6.50 Monday. My lesser target is about 7
1/2. That's what I'll be looking for next. It needs to be stopped at
4.90, in my opinion.

Crosstex Energy Inc. (XTXI) popped across key resistance Monday vacant
back a year and a half. This could mean that an extension of this go
to the top of this channel ultimately could take place down the road.
We'll set a long-term target at 25, small-term target at around 13,
intermediate at 18.

Other stocks in our Charts of the Day video are Apricus Biosciences,
Inc. (APRI), Abraxas Petroleum Corp. (AXAS), Dynamic Materials Corp.
(BOOM), Columbia Laboratories Inc. (CBRX), Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL),
Fantastic Panther Silver Limited Or (GPL), Hardinge Inc. (HDNG), ION
Geophysical Corporation (IO), Kodiak Oil & Gas Corp. (KOG), NXP
Semiconductors NV (NXPI), Pulse Electronics Corporation C (PULS),
SodaStream International Ltd. (SODA), Samson Oil & Gas Limited (SSN),
Transition Therapeutics Inc. (TTHI), Vertex Pharmaceuticals
Incorporated (VRTX).


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