Sunday, March 6, 2011

Forex Weekly Outlook - March 7-11

*Rate Decisions in New Zealand and the U.K. Employment data in U.S.,
Canada and Australia, US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment and many more
await us this week. Here is an outlook on the Market movers ahead.*

US labor market is continuing to strengthen in light of last week's
ADP estimate. Companies bent 217,000 new jobs last month after a
revised 189,000 gain in January. This positive outcome supports
Centralized Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's testimony to
Congress on March 1 adage there are "grounds for optimism" showing
the job market is recovering.

* *New Zealand* *Rate Choice*: Wednesday, 20:00. Following the
volatility in oil prices due to the tension in the Middle East and
in and last week's fatal and destructive Christchurch
earthquake, it appears that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is
expected to cut the cash rate by 0.25% to 2.75% from 3.0% in the
previous month. This cut is aimed to lift confidence in light of
the halt in market activity.

* *Australian Employment Data:* Thursday, 0:30. Employment change in
Australia gained 24,000 jobs following a mere 2,300 January. This
rise was more than the 18,400 analysts had expected. Meanwhile
unemployment rate remained steady at 5.0% equivalent to the
previous reading and the forecasted value. Job foundation is
expected to gain 21,500 and Unemployment rate is likely to remain

* *British Rate Choice:* Thursday, 12:00. Following the ambiguous
results of the inflation report handed on Feb 16 and the BOE press
conference which followed, it can be suggested that the BOE will
not endorse the markets' views and bring to somebody's attention
rates in the near future. But King stated that there is a strong
possibility of a rise in interest rates in the middle of the year
due to inflation uncertainty in the market. The rate is not
expected to change this time.

* *US Unemployment Claims:* Thursday, 13:30. A remarkable drop in
early unemployment claims was registered last week with 368,000
claims 27,000 less than expected following 388,000 in the week
before. This was the lowest number since May of 2008. New
unemployment claims are predicted estimated at 373,000.

* *US Centralized Budget Weigh:* Thursday, 19:00. The U.S. budget
shortage widened less than expected in January success $49.80
billion below analysts' predictions of a $70 billion shortage.
Shortage was lower than expected due to arise in tax total
admission money. Concern about the growing U.S. shortage has taken
on new urgency after a series of sovereign debt crises in Europe
fueled a movement toward painful fiscal simplicity initiatives in
nations around the globe. President Barack Obama is under
difficulty to show how he plans to solve the budgetary shortage.
U.S. budget shortage is expected to grow to $235.1 billion.

* *Canadian Employment Data:* Friday, 12:00. Canada employment
change in January surged to 69,200 well above the forecast of
18,900 indicating the country's economic recovery may be
accelerating. But the jobless rate rose to 7.8 % from December's
7.6 %, as more people sought work. Nevertheless there is growing
confidence that the Canadian market will grow this year and lower
Unemployment rates. A growth of 31,300 new jobs is expected and
jobless rate is forecasted to drop to 7.7%.

* *US Retail Sales:* Friday, 13:30. Sales at retailers rose less
than forecasted in January, indicating consumers' difficulty of
maintaining last quarter's rise in spending without larger gains
in employment. Buys increased 0.3 % following 0.5% in December.
Winter snowstorms may give reasons for the slowdown in spending.
Core Retail Sales without autos, gasoline and building materials,
gained 0.4 % after a 0.3 % gain in December. January figures
compelled economists to cut forecasts for consumer spending this
quarter. Retail sales are expected to gain 0.6% this time while
Core Ratail Sales are expected to grow 0.7%. *

* US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment,* Friday, 14:55. U.S. UoM
Consumer Sentiment has seen a modest improvement in February
rising to 75.1 revise to 77.5. Analysts predicted a rise to74.8. A
slight drop to 77.3 is predicted now.

*All times are GMT.


No comments: