Saturday, February 12, 2011

The Trading Week: Feb. 14 - Feb. 18

Feb.
11, 2011
(Allthingsforex.com)
– In the
week ahead, a
sequence of
U.S. consumer
spending,
housing,
industrial
activity and
inflation
reports will
offer more
details on the
state of the
recovery in the
world's
largest
economy, while
crucial
inflation data
from the U.K.
should provide
the clues to
the future
direction of
the Bank of
England's
monetary
policy.

In
training for
the new trading
week, here is
the outlook for
the Top 10
spotlight
economic events
that will go
the markets
around the
globe.

1. JPY-
Japan GDP-
Combined Domestic
Product,
the main
measure of
economic
activity and
growth, Sun.,
Feb. 13, 6:50
pm, ET.

The
preliminary
estimate of the
Japanese Q4
2010 GDP is
forecast to
show the
economy
contracting in
the fourth
quarter with a
reading of
-0.5% q/q, down
from 1.1% q/q
in Q3 2010.

2. GBP-
U.K. CPI-
Consumer Price
Index,
the main
measure of
inflation
preferred by
the Bank of
England, Tues.,
Feb. 15, 4:30
am, ET.

The
U.K.
inflationary
pressures are
expected remain
tenaciously
above the Bank
of
England's
3.0% ceiling
for another
month with the
consumer
inflation gauge
forecast to
rise by 4.0%
y/y in January
from 3.7% y/y
in December. As
long as
inflation
levels remain
elevated, the
Bank of England
could be
prompted to
bring to somebody's attention rates
sooner rather
than
later.

3. EUR-
Euro-zone GDP-
Combined Domestic
Product,
the main
measure of
economic
activity and
growth, Tues.,
Feb. 15, 5:00
am, ET.

Following a
preliminary
estimate of
0.3% q/q, the
following reading
of the
Euro-zone GDP
is forecast to
bring an upward
revision of the
fourth quarter
economic growth
by 0.4% q/q in
Q4 2010.

4. USD-
U.S. Retail
Sales,
an vital
gauge of
consumer
spending
measuring sales
at retail
establishments,
Tues., Feb. 15,
8:30 am, ET.

Consumer
spending in the
U.S. could
register
another
positive month
with retail
sales forecast
to increase by
0.6% m/m in
January, same
as the 0.6% m/m
reading in
December.

5. JPY-
Bank of Japan
Interest Rate
Announcement,
Wed., Feb. 16,
expected around
12:00 am, ET.

With the Q4
GDP expected to
show the
Japanese
economic growth
slowing down,
the Bank of
Japan could
consider
additional
stimulus for
the economy and
would be likely
to maintain its
accommodative
monetary
policy, keeping
the benchmark
interest rate
in a target
band between 0%
and
0.10%.

6. GBP-
Bank of England
Inflation
Report,
the central
bank's
official
assessment on
current
inflationary
pressures and
outlook on
future
inflation,
Wed., Feb. 16,
5:30 am, ET.

In
its previous
report the Bank
of England has
said that
inflation could
rise above 4.0%
before easing
back to the
bank's
comfort level
around 2.0%.
The market has
been pricing
aggressively Q3
rate hike
expectations
and if the
report reveals
that the Bank
of England
expects
inflationary
pressures to
continue to
rise, the odds
for an interest
rate hike in
the near future
would increase,
lending support
to the pound
sterling.

7. USD-
U.S. Housing
Starts,
a leading
indicator of
housing market
activity
measuring
construction of
new residential
properties,
Wed., Feb. 16,
8:30 am,
ET.

Throughout
last year, the
U.S. housing
data has been
either weak or
mixed, at best,
and this report
could have a
similar outcome
with the
housing starts
registering a
slight increase
to 540K in
January from
530K in
December, while
building
permits decline
to 570K from
630K in the
previous month.

8. USD-
U.S. Industrial
Production,
the main gauge
of industrial
activity
measuring the
output of
factories,
mines and
utilities,
Wed., Feb. 16,
9:15 am, ET.

Manufacturing
activity in the
U.S. is
expected to
increase by
0.5% m/m in
January, lower
than the 0.8%
m/m reading in
December.

9. USD-
U.S. FOMC-
Centralized Open
Market
Committee
Meeting
Minutes,
a comprehensive
report of the
Fed's
meeting that
could provide
an outlook on
the economy,
interest rates
and future
monetary
policy, Wed.,
Feb. 16, 2:00
pm, ET.

The
minutes are
expected to
highlight the
reasons behind
the Fed's
choice to
stay the course
and continue
its
ultra-accommodative
monetary policy
of near 0%
interest rates,
coupled with
the $600
billion
quantitative
easing curriculum
of Treasury
bond buys.

10. USD-
U.S. Jobless
Claims,
an vital
gauge of
employment
trends and
labor market
conditions, and
U.S. CPI-
Consumer Price
Index, the main
measure of
inflation in
the
world's
largest
economy,
Thurs., Feb.
17, 8:30 am,
ET.

After last
week's
better-than-expected
drop to 384K in
the number of
Americans
filing
applications
for
unemployment
benefits, the
jobless claims
could spike a
bit higher with
a reading of
410K.
Inflationary
pressures in
the U.S. are
forecast to
increase with
the Core CPI
rising by 0.2%
m/m and 1.7%
y/y in January
from 0.1% m/m
and 1.5% y/y in
December.

Source: Fxstreet.com

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