28, 2011
(Allthingsforex.com)
– Another
crucial for the
fate of the
U.S. dollar
week ahead will
bring a
sequence of
important
economic data
from the
world's
largest
economy,
culminating
with the U.S.
Non-Farm
Payrolls and
Employment
Situation
report which
could confirm
the Fed's
concerns that
"the
economic
recovery is
continuing,
though at a
rate that has
been
insufficient to
bring about a
significant
improvement in
labor market
conditions."
In
preparation for
the new trading
week, here is
the outlook for
the Top 10
spotlight
economic events
that will move
the markets
around the
globe.
1. EUR-
Euro-zone HICP-
Harmonized
Index of
Consumer
Prices,
the main
measure of
inflation,
Mon., Jan. 31,
5:00 am, ET.
Inflationary
pressures in
the Euro-zone
are forecast to
climb well
above the
European
Central
bank's 2%
comfort level,
rising by 2.4%
y/y in
February,
compared with
2.2% y/y in the
previous month.
2. USD-
U.S. Personal
Income and
Outlays,
a measure of
the income
received and
purchases made
by consumers,
released along
with the
Personal
Consumption and
Expenditures
Price Index- a
leading
indicator of
inflation
preferred by
the Federal
Reserve, Mon.,
Jan.31, 8:30
am, ET.
The
Fed's
preferred
inflation
gauge, the core
PCE Index, is
expected to
show subdued
inflationary
pressures with
a slight
increase by
0.1% m/m, same
as the 0.1%
reading in
December, while
personal
spending
registers a
small increase
by 0.6% m/m in
January from
0.5% m/m in
December.
3. AUD-
Reserve Bank of
Australia
Interest Rate
Announcement,
Mon., Jan.
31, 10:30
pm, ET.
With the
Australian
economy
slowing, the
government
proposing a
floods
reconstruction
tax and China
growth cooling
off, the
Reserve Bank of
Australia is
expected to not
be in any hurry
to hike rates,
keeping the
benchmark
interest rate
unchanged at
4.75%.
4. USD-
U.S. ISM
Manufacturing
Index,
a leading
indicator of
industrial
activity, where
a reading above
or below 50 is
the dividing
line between
economic
expansion and
contraction,
Tues., Feb. 1,
10:00 am, ET.
The
U.S.
manufacturing
sector is
expected to
register
another month
of expansion
with an ISM
index reading
of 58.0 in
January, a bit
lower than 58.5
in
December.
5. USD-
U.S.
ADP-Automatic
Data Processing
Employment
Report,
a measure of
jobs lost or
added to the
private sector
of the economy,
also serving as
a preliminary
estimate for
the outcome of
the monthly
non-farm
payrolls, Wed.,
Feb. 2, 8:15
am, ET.
Private
sector payrolls
are forecast to
increase by up
to 145,000 in
January, about
50% less than
the 297,000 new
payrolls in the
previous month.
Weaker private
sector jobs
creation could
have a negative
impact on the
overall
Non-Farm
Payrolls report
on
Friday.
6. EUR-
Euro-zone
Retail
Sales,
an important
gauge of
consumer
spending
measuring sales
at retail
establishments,
Thurs., Feb. 3,
5:00 am, ET.
Consumer
spending in the
Euro-zone is
expected to
pick up, with
retail sales
rising by 0.5%
m/m in December
from -0.8% in
the previous
month.
7. EUR-
European
Central Bank
Interest Rate
Announcement,
Thurs., Feb. 3,
7:45 am, ET.
As
inflationary
pressures in
the Euro-zone
began to creep
above 2% in
recent months,
the European
Central Bank
President and
other policy
makers have
taken a more
hawkish stance.
The ECB is
expected to
keep the
benchmark rate
unchanged at
1.0%, but
should the
central bank
hint to the
possibility of
a
less-accommodative
future monetary
policy and
decide to
remind the
markets of its
main
inflation-fighting
role, the EUR
could continue
to be
supported.
8. USD-
U.S. ISM
Non-Manufacturing
Index,
a leading
indicator of
economic
conditions in
the services
industries:
agriculture,
mining,
construction,
transportation,
communications,
wholesale trade
and retail
trade, Thurs.,
Feb. 3, 10:00
am, ET.
The ISM
Non-Manufacturing
Index is
expected to
show activity
in the services
industries
registering
another month
of growth with
a reading of
57.2 in
January,
compared 57.1
in
December.
9. CAD-
Canada
Employment
Situation and
Unemployment
Rate,
the main gauge
of employment
trends and
labor market
conditions,
Fri., Feb. 4,
7:00 am,
ET.
The
Canadian
economy is
forecast to add
up to 18,900
jobs in
January, lesser
than the 22,000
jobs in the
previous month,
while the
unemployment
rate remains
unchanged at
7.6%.
10. USD-
U.S. Non-Farm
Payrolls and
Employment
Situation
Report,
one of the most
important
indicators of
economic
health,
measuring the
number of new
jobs created or
lost in the
world's
largest
economy, Fri.,
Feb. 4, 8:30
am,
ET.
Following the
FOMC
announcement
that the U.S.
central bank
will maintain
its
ultra-accommodative
monetary policy
by keeping
rates near 0%
and continuing
the $600
billion
quantitative
easing program,
the Non-Farm
Payrolls report
is forecast to
show a month of
stronger job
creation as the
U.S. economy
adds up to 150K
jobs in January
from 103K in
the previous
month. However,
the
unemployment
rate could inch
higher to 9.5%
from 9.4% in
December. A
mixed jobs
report would
highlight the
reasons behind
the Fed's
latest monetary
policy decision
due to the lack
of
"significant
improvement in
labor market
conditions."
Source: Fxstreet.com
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