Equity indices gapped lower this week in the face of growing risk
aversion, with traders disregarding robust corporate earnings and a
strong first reading of US GDP. The Shanghai Composite dropped below
3,000 for the first time since late 2008, while the DJIA closed within
44 points of 10,000 and commodities traded off hard. On Friday, advance
GDP showed the US economy grew faster than expected in Q4, at an
annualized rate of 5.4%. If the GDP reading holds up upon revision, GDP
in the final quarter of 2009 would be higher than at any time since
September 2003. Housing data was mixed: the November S&P/CS index
gained for the sixth consecutive month, although the move up was
modest. Meanwhile, December new home sales fell nearly 8% m/m
(following an 11% m/m decline in November), prompting Yale Economist
Robert Shiller to reiterate that he believes home prices could be
faltering yet again. President Obama gave his first State of the Union
speech on Wednesday, offering a trenchant defense of his first year in
office while also admitting certain mistakes had been made. The
President promised to double US exports over the next five years and
make job creation a primary focus, and also said $30B in repaid TARP
funding would be redirect to loans for small businesses. Ahead of the
speech, the Congressional Budget Office released predictions for a
$1.35T deficit for this year as the economy continues to slowly recover
from the recession. After a flurry of Washington drama last week (full
of implicit threats to Fed policy independence), the Senate handed Ben
Bernanke a second term as Fed chairman in a 70 to 30 vote. For the
week, the DJIA lost 1.1%, the Nasdaq dropped 2.6% and the S&P 500
fell 1.7%.
Dow components Johnson & Johnson, DuPont, 3M, Procter &
Gamble and Travelers all beat earnings estimates by respectable
margins. Full-year EPS guidance ranges were largely in line with
expectations. AT&T and Verizon met expectations and both telecoms
saw big increases in wireless subscriber additions on a q/q basis. DJIA
industrial names Boeing, Caterpillar and United Technologies offered
strong quarterly results. On the other hand, full year EPS forecasts at
Boeing and Cat were weaker than expected. Chevron's results were
surprisingly mixed: earnings missed expectations while revenue was way
ahead of the consensus view. The firm's upstream revenue was up by
nearly 30% on a q/q basis, but the downstream operation racked up a
substantial loss due to weak demand and excess supply.
Leading tech names Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Yahoo, Qualcomm,
SanDisk and Juniper Networks all exceeded or greatly exceeded earnings
expectations. Apple's launch of the widely anticipated iPad tablet
computer dominated the newsflow in the tech universe, and Apple stock
jumped $10 when CEO Steve Jobs announced the new product would start at
an affordable $499. Exceptional demand for Microsoft's new Windows 7
operating system led to very strong top-line growth for the company.
Traders should note that results from Apple and Microsoft were inflated
to a certain degree by the adoption of new deferred revenue recognition
accounting rules. Motorola offered in line results, while competitor
Nokia's operating profit was twice the expected amount. Both firms
expect very strong growth in smartphone sales this year.
In other earnings, ConocoPhillips and Valero topped expectations,
and COP crushed revenue targets. The outlook is not bright for
integrated oils: Valero warned that there is too much inventory and
spare refining capacity in the industry for margins to rebound quickly.
Benefits administrator WellPoint offered excellent quarterly results,
although its full-year forecast was a little soft. Ford's revenue
results blew out expectations. CEO Mulally said Ford would be
profitable on a pre-tax basis this year reiterated that the company
would be fully profitable next year. Steel maker Nucor returned to
profitability after two quarters of losses, with earnings more than
twice the expected amount. Nucor's CEO warned that real demand is in
for a long, slow recovery. Competitor US Steel reported a larger than
expected loss.
Nowhere was investor's diminishing risk appetite more apparent than
in commodities. Following a roughly 3% move lower last week the CRB
index declined another 4% this week. Softs continue to trend lower led
by more steep declines in wheat and corn prices. Economically sensitive
commodities moved through some key levels attracting more pronounced
media attention. Front month crude now trades with a $72 handle and has
closed the week below its 200-day EMA for the first time since last
March. March copper finished the month down 8% while silver is off 4%
in January. Concerns about China are weighing on industrial metals and
March cooper is now below its 90-day EMA and testing the first
Fibonacci retracement level just above $3 working up from the late 2008
lows. February Gold closed below its 90-day EMA for the first time
since last summer making new multi-month lows below $1075.
US bond markets felt the push and pull of key economic data, new
supply, the FOMC decision on Wednesday and the deepening sense investor
risk aversion. Treasury yields were ultimately unable to make much
headway one way or the other as tailwinds from Fed Governor Hoenig's
FOMC dissent, $118B in coupon supply and the surprisingly strong first
reading of Q4 GDP was more than offset by the underlying risk aversion.
The US benchmark 10-year yield looks to finish the week lower than
where it began and roughly 10 basis points from the move up towards
3.7% made post FOMC decision. Volatility has been even more dramatic at
the short end: the 2-year yield is also down nearly 10-basis points
from mid-week highs made above 0.9%.
Another week of intrigue in European sovereign debt markets has
driven bond and currency markets, with claims, denials and
counter-denials sending peripheral debt on a roller coaster ride to the
upside. Greece's 10-year spreads rose from the Bunds+300 bps area on
Monday to as wide as +400bps midweek when press reports of a €25B debt
sale to the Chinese government were strenuously denied. Spreads
regained ground as expectations for some form of assistance grew
stronger, culminating in a report from the French press. Le Monde
speculated that France and Germany were preparing a bailout that could
be presented in Brussels on Feb 11 when various heads of states are
scheduled to meet. Subsequently a chorus of EU officials, including
Economic commissioner Alumina and Commission President Barroso, as well
as French Finance Minister Lagarde, issued carefully hedged support for
the country. Meanwhile, the Greek finance minister issued another
series of pledges and promises. By Friday 10-year Greek paper offered
yields 360+ basis points above Bunds.
Greece was not the only hotspot within the EU. A preliminary look
its 2010 budget failed to inspire much confidence that Portugal will be
able to avoid the concerns surrounding the likes of Greece and Ireland.
Portugal's 10-year spreads from Bunds rose another 13 basis points on
the week and at Bunds+118 has nearly doubled in the last month. Spanish
officials were much more forthcoming when presenting details for how
they plan to tackle uncomfortably high debt levels, but nevertheless
10-year spreads there too widened 12 basis points by week's end.
The greenback continues to benefit handsomely as European
peripheral spreads move out to their widest levels against the 10-year
Bund since the launch of the euro back in 1999. George Soros summed up
the current situation aptly, noting that the Greek debt problem shows
up the shortcomings of Euro Zone structures and the inherent weakness
of not having a single Euro Treasury. Sovereign issues were also fueled
by rating agencies. Moody's commented that Portugal needed a credible
deficit reduction. Spain, Poland and Portugal all released budget
proposals during the week, revealing the scale of the challenges ahead
for their respective economies. Spain, for instance, is targeting about
€50B in spending cuts by 2013, which amounts to nearly 5% of GDP.
Standard & Poor's downgraded its outlook on Japan's AA sovereign
rating and also released a reported indicating that it no longer
considers Britain among the 'most stable and low-risk' banking systems.
Verbal Intervention also played a minor role in the dollar's strong
performance. ECB Chief Trichet reiterated his view that he agrees with
US authorities when they state that a strong dollar is in best interest
of US and added it corresponds to the overall interests of the global
economy, Europe and 'currencies that do not float.' The road ahead for
the firmer USD would not be one-way street. Obama's State of the Union
pledge to support exports made some traders wonder whether a stronger
dollar might not suit the administration's plans double exports
There was talk of an Eastern European option barrier at the 1.40
EUR/USD level that initially curbed the dollar's upside momentum.
However, a more optimistic outlook by the FOMC on US growth prospects
saw this psychological level give way, with EUR/USD moving out to the
1.39 handle, last seen in July 2009.
Across the pond, the UK
unconvincingly moved out of recession with a +0.1% GDP reading that
undershot expectations, with many wondering what will sustain the
recovery as the BoE is likely to hit the pause button on quantitative
easing in February. BoE Governor Sentence commented that the BoE must
be ready to adapt policies to changing circumstances since goods
deflation would not hold down the UK inflation rate. He noted that the
impact of sterling was feeding into CPI and that spare capacity might
be lower than expected. If the combination of above-target services
inflation and rising import prices persisted, Sentence believes it will
be difficult for the MPC to keep inflation on target. GBP/USD ending
the week hovering around the 1.60 handle.
The yield on the US 2-year note encountered extreme volatility,
whipsawing between 0.83% and 0.93% all week long. USD/JPY moved in lock
step with fluctuating US yields. S&P's comments inspired promises
of fiscal discipline from both Finance Minister Kan and his deputy
Noda, all of which drove a reversal in fortunes for the yen. JPY took
on a soft tone at the end of the week, attributed to Toshin fund
launches and month-end rebalancing flows.
On Tues, Japan December Exports rose for the first time since Sept
of 2008 by 12.1%. The reversal for the export-heavy economy lifted
shares of companies with substantial overseas exposure and prompted the
chief Japan economist at Barclays to suggest that economic growth is
likely to accelerate towards the end of this year, reducing the need
for the BoJ to take further easing measures. That was ndeed the case
for Japan's central bank in the prior session. With a number of
economists calling on the BOJ to take a more pro-growth path by either
expanding the size of its emergency-loan program or raising the monthly
JGB buying, policymakers did neither, instead upgrading the current
year GDP outlook to -2.5% from -3.2% and next year's view to 1.3% from
1.2%. In the same session, S&P was less upbeat, noting that the
Japanese government's diminishing economic policy flexibility may lead
to a downgrade unless measures can be taken to stem fiscal /
deflationary pressures. To that end, CPI figures in the final trading
day in Tokyo saw a second consecutive increase and a 7-month high in
headline and core levels of inflation in evidence of Japan making
progress of clawing out of deflationary depths.
Australia's headline Q4 CPI figures topped estimates by a decimal
point at 2.1% y/y and core levels printed in line at 3.2% - still above
the central bank target band of 2-3%. The quarterly inflation data,
seen as a 'make-or-break' event for next week's RBA decision,
solidified analyst expectations for a fourth consecutive 25bp hike on
Monday evening, as overnight swaps showed the likelihood of tightening
rising to 75% from around 65%. PM Rudd spoke after the CPI release,
warning that interest rates may increase. Several analyst reports also
suggested confirmation of RBA tightening by the CPI data, including
BofA/Merrill Lynch, who said the CPI is 'just enough' above consensus
to confirm the hike.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rates unchanged at
2.50%, but reaffirmed its plans to begin raising rates in 'mid-2010'.
Governor Bollard shrugged the disappointing Q4 CPI released last week
that showed the first contraction since Q4 of 2008 by noting that
inflation remaining comfortably within the target range and that
household spending is increasing as the economy recovers. Later in the
week, Kiwi data continued to deteriorate however, as December building
permits showed the first m/m decrease in 6 months, suggesting there is
still plenty of room for improvement in Kiwi economy for its central
bank to join Australia's tightening cycle.
Trade The News Staff
Trade The News, Inc.
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1 comment:
I am waiting for the recent weeks report of yours, thanks for sharing and updating us about the weekly happenings, Keep it up!
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