Risk appetite vanished this week like Punxsutawney Phil on Groundhog
Day, with political issues and lackluster quarterly reports from the
big banks dominating trading. US markets were closed on Monday and
performed relatively well on Tuesday. Weak quarterly results from Bank
of America and Morgan Stanley together with President Obama's latest
round of financial industry regulatory proposals drove a sustained
three-day decline in the back half of the week. Adding to concerns,
China took steps to curb lending and investment in key sectors in order
to cool off its booming economy as it reported Q4 GDP growth well above
10%. The surprise victory by Scott Brown in the Massachusetts special
US Senate election shook up the political scene in Washington DC,
deprived the Democrats of their 60-vote supermajority in the Senate and
put the viability of healthcare reform in question. Democrats fleeing
from the coattails of a President with a sinking popularity and
emboldened Republicans continued to press the Administration, as
evidenced by the eroding support for Ben Bernanke's reconfirmation. By
Friday afternoon, it became clear there was a strong possibility that
Fed Chairman Bernanke would not be confirmed before the end of his
current term, and might be replaced by skittish legislators looking for
political cover. Needless to say, this did not reassure markets.
Traders fled to the greenback and dumped commodities, while the VIX
volatility index jumped nearly 60% to just below the 28 handle by the
close on Friday, its highest level since last November. US stocks had
their worst week since last March: the DJIA fell 4.1%, the Nasdaq
dropped 3.6% and the S&P 500 declined 3.9%.
The big US banks have had a very bad week. After announcing $90B in
fees on risky bank behavior last Friday, President Obama this week
proposed that banks be prohibited from running proprietary trading
operations or investing in hedge funds or private equity funds as a way
to limit the risk of another financial crisis. White House Advisor
Austan Goolsbee insisted that the proposal did not amount to a return
of Glass-Steagall. The plan is the brain child of Paul Volker, and some
commentators see it as a sign of Treasury Secretary Geithner's waning
influence at the White House, and possibly as proof Geithner will be
dumped soon (one analyst even speculated that White House Chief of
Staff Rahm Emmanuel could be installed as Treasury Secretary). For his
part, Geither said that banks will have choices on how they will comply
with plan and that the government simply wants to limit risk-taking,
not break up banks.
Citigroup reported its ninth consecutive quarterly loss on Tuesday,
although the loss was not greater than expected. Both Bank of America
and Morgan Stanley missed expectations. BoA lost $5.2B in the quarter,
even as the bank took a one-time $4B charge for repaying its TARP
funds. Morgan Stanley's quarterly profit was less than half the
expected amount. Goldman Sachs on the other hand crushed its estimates,
disproving the naysayers who had consistently downgraded estimates over
the course of the quarter. For the full year, Goldman earned more than
$13B, almost as much as $15B earned by the five other big national
banks combined. Goldman was not immune to the sharp selloff in the
financial sector, however, as the President's new regulatory scheme
seemed to be aimed directly at Goldman's lucrative prop trading
business.
Results out of regional banks were largely positive. Super-regional
banking names Wells Fargo and US Bancorp outshined their larger
brethren. Wells surprised with a small quarterly profit, versus
expectations for a loss. That outcome included the $0.47/share charge
for repaying the bank's in TARP funds. USB was largely in line with
expectations and offered plenty of upbeat commentary on the bank's
outlook. Smaller regional names Bank of New York, M&T Bank beat
estimates roundly. Quarterly losses at Fifth Third, SunTrust and
KeyCorp were smaller than expected.
Quarterly reports from Dow components were relatively strong:
results out of General Electric and IBM beat analysts' expectations,
while McDonald's racked up positive December and Q4 comps across all
regions and predicted modest sales growth in 2010. American Express's
results also exceeded expectations, although the credit card firm
warned that depressed real estate and high unemployment will continue
to present problems in 2010. In other earnings, Google had strong
results, and tried to put a more positive face on its future in China
after its scuffle last week with the Chinese government over
censorship. AMD's loss was smaller than expected, although the company
warned that revenue would fall next quarter. Starbucks beat Q1
estimates and hiked its earnings outlook for the full year. CSX was in
line with expectations.
A tough week for stocks resulted in rising Treasury prices and lower
rates. Early on some traders wondered if the Massachusetts's election
results would prove to be positive catalyst for the market, but quickly
the focus shifted to concerns outside the US borders as overall risk
aversion permeated out of the Asian and European trading sessions each
day. Continued signals that China's central bank is getting more
aggressive in withdrawing stimulus, along with ever widening 10-year
Greek to Bund debt spreads propelled the flow of money out of equities
and into the relative safety of government debt. By Thursday the
unveiling of the Volcker rule kicked risk aversion trades into
overdrive sending the 10-year yield below 3.6% and the long bond back
to 4.5%. The week drew to a close with Treasury prices managing to
consolidate the gains seen over the past two week's which has brought
the US benchmark yield down some 20 basis points.
Looking ahead a fresh round of $118B in coupon supply is set to hit
the street next week. Though the paper is short term in duration and
unchanged in overall size from the December auctions, the results will
certainly be scrutinized closely especially in light of Tuesday's TICS
data which showed declining Chinese US Treasury holdings. Also some are
beginning to wonder whether the proposed restrictions on proprietary
trading could have the unintended consequence of hampering banks
ability to participate in US debt auctions. The European sovereign debt
story is likely to remain center stage next week as well. Greek 10-year
paper yields some 300+ basis points above Bunds making fresh post Euro
inception highs after the Greece's Debt Agency confirmed plans to issue
as much as €3B in syndicated bonds sometime in next two months.
Tuesday's preliminary look at Portugal's 2010 budget could further
stoke the fears that spiraling budget deficits in some EU economies
will lead to more ratings agency downgrades and increased squabbles
amongst member nations.
Traders' desire to offload risk was not only evident in debt and
equity markets. Commodity prices moved sharply lower across several
main categories while stocks declined and the dollar rallied. Front
month crude dipped below $75 for the first time in nearly a month as
some noted EIA figures that suggested US crude demand has dropped below
the worst levels seen during last year's recession. Spot gold tested
its 100-day moving average of $1,086 for the first time since July. The
Feb contract is down nearly $50 on the week at $1,090 and traders are
eyeing some key support at the $1,074 (December low, October high) and
$1,050 (uptrend line from November 2008 low). March silver is off more
than 40 cents on the week to trade back below $17 while copper has been
the most resilient metal, buoyed by strong Chinese GDP figures.
Dollar- and yen-related pairs are benefiting at the expense of
European and commodity components thanks to freshly risk averse
traders. China's signal that it would enact curbs on lending and
speculation about which emerging market nation would be the next to
head for the policy exit only lessened appetite for risk. European
officials continue to stress that Greece needs to deal with its fiscal
problems on its own, while in the US the administration's latest
financial industry proposals were seen as fresh headwinds for growth.
Verbal intervention around the world sought to sooth market
volatility on a macro basis. China noted several times during the week
that it would maintain "moderately loose" monetary policy and insisted
that any lending curbs were designed to avoid unusual swings in credit
this year. Other cases of intervention were less calming: ECB's Stark
commented that signs of deteriorating credit quality remain in the Euro
Zone. The ECB's Sramko commented that it would take up to three
quarters to confirm whether economic recovery was stable or not, adding
that the ECB would find the "right moment" to exit accommodation.
The euro was weighed down by continuing sovereign debt concerns and
forecasts of uneven economic growth, with EUR/USD moving below its key
200-day moving average for the first time since May 2009 this week.
Technical factors have some dealers seeing a potential retest of the
pivotal 1.38 neighborhood in the pair. The dormant Eastern European
carry trade issue was simmering again after ECB's Nowotny commented
that FX consumer loans were extremely problematic and that banking in
Eastern Europe was not just an Austrian affair. EUR/CHF cross continued
to drift to pre-SNB intervention levels as it moved below the 1.47
handle.
Economic data and further central bank activity kept China at the
forefront of global economic news following last week's surprise
decision by the PBOC to raise its reserve requirement ratio that
further weighed on regional equities. Chinese central bank official Yi
looked to diffuse fears of more aggressive policy, reiterating that the
PBOC still plans to keep monetary policy loose in 2010 despite
anticipating moderate growth in CPI in the coming year. Concerns were
heightened in nervous investor sentiment on Wednesday, with the release
of China Q4 GDP and December economic data. Q4 real GDP came in at
10.7%, better than the 10.5% expected, and the highest quarterly rate
of growth since 2007. On annual basis, the Chinese economy grew 8.7% in
2009. Chinese inflation data was a cause for concern, with a 1.9% rise
in December CPI (0.5% higher than expected), and 1.7% growth in PPI
(0.9% higher than expected), the biggest jump in both readings in over
a year. Overheated pricing pressures were particularly visible in food
inflation, prompting speculation that Chinese central bank could take
even more aggressive tightening measures as early as the coming week.
Outside the monetary implications of strong economic data, Asian
markets were shaken by a further threat of restriction on lending. On
Tuesday, CBRC (China Banking Regulatory Commission) regulator Liu said
that new leverage and liquidity ratios imposed on banks will restrict
loan volume to CNY7.5T in 2010, down from CNY9.6T in 2009. That
statement followed on the heels of a report that certain Chinese banks
have been told to stop lending for the remainder of January, under a
directive from Premier Wen to control the pace of new lending.
Trade The News Staff
Trade The News, Inc.
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