Sunday, October 11, 2009

EMU Economic Indicators Preview (Week of 12 to 18 October 2009)

  • German ZEW economic sentiment (October): remaining stable at best
  • EMU industrial production (August): up

The German ZEW economic sentiment is likely to have remained stable at best in October. The ifo business expectations have improved, but the US ISM manufacturing index has deteriorated. German yield spreads have narrowed recently, because long-term interest rates have decreased while short-term rates have more or less stabilised. The DAX has improved, but the euro has continued to appreciate and crude oil prices have gone down.

EMU industrial production is expected to have soared in August, just like the corresponding national figures. Following its usual seasonal pattern, the EMU trade balance will probably have plummeted in August, just like the corresponding German figure.

Final HICP inflation in the eurozone will probably be confirmed at -0.3 % yoy in September; this would correspond with a monthly inflation rate of 0.1%. Year-on-year inflation is expected to remain in negative territory until October.


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