Sunday, August 16, 2009

EMU Economic Indicators Preview (Week of 17 to 23 August 2009)

  • German ZEW economic sentiment (August): set to rebound
  • PMI manufacturing indices Germany and EMU (August): up

The German ZEW economic sentiment is likely to have rebounded in August. The ifo business expectations and the US ISM manufacturing index have both improved. German yield spreads have widened somewhat, because long-term interest rates have increased slightly while short-term rates have decreased. The DAX has rallied too. However, the euro has appreciated and crude oil prices have gone up. The Purchasing Managers' Indices for the German and EMU manufacturing sector will probably have picked up further in August.

Following their usual seasonal pattern, the EMU trade balance and current account are expected to have improved in June, just like the corresponding German figures.


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