Monday, July 13, 2009

EMU Economic Indicators Preview (Week of 13 to 19 July 2009)

  • German ZEW economic sentiment (July): slightly up
  • EMU industrial production (May): set to rebound

The German ZEW economic sentiment is only likely to have risen slightly in July. The ifo business expectations and the US ISM manufacturing index have both improved. On the other hand, German yield spreads have narrowed somewhat, as long-term interest rates have decreased more than short-term rates. The DAX and crude oil prices have gone down too, recently. And the euro has been fluctuating at a high level.

EMU industrial production will probably have rebounded in May, just like most of the corresponding national figures. But that would not prevent a quarter-on-quarter decrease in EMU industrial production in Q2. Following its usual seasonal pattern, the EMU trade balance is expected to have remained more or less unchanged in May, just like the corresponding German figure.

Final HICP inflation in the eurozone is likely to be confirmed at -0.1 % yoy in June; this would correspond with a monthly inflation rate of 0.2%. Year-on-year inflation is expected to remain in negative territory until autumn.


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