Sunday, July 5, 2009

EMU Economic Indicators Preview (Week of 6 to 12 July 2009)

  • German industrial new orders (May): stagnation likely
  • Output in the German producing sector (May): down

German industrial new orders could have remained more or less unchanged in May, as the correlated indicators sent mixed signals. However, April new orders are likely to be revised downwards significantly. Output in the German producing sector will probably have decreased in May, just like most of the correlated indicators. For similar reasons, French and Italian industrial production could have declined in May.

Following the usual seasonal pattern, the German trade balance is likely to have remained more or less unchanged and the German current account will probably have deteriorated in May. EMU Q1 GDP is unlikely to be revised significantly.


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