- German ifo business climate (April): down
- German ZEW economic sentiment (April): slight improvement
- PMI manufacturing indices Germany and EMU (April): stable at least
The German ZEW economic sentiment might have improved again somewhat in April, entering positive territory for the first time since July 2007. However, the ifo business climate for Germany could have deteriorated slightly further in April; the current assessment is likely to have declined, but business expectations will probably have improved, just as they, and also the US ISM manufacturing index, did in March. German yield spreads have widened somewhat, as short-term interest rates have continued declining and long-term rates have gone up slightly. The DAX has recovered recently too. However, the euro had appreciated in the first half of March and has only gone down slightly since then. The crude oil price has increased somewhat.
For similar reasons, Belgian and French business confidence and the Purchasing Managers' Indices for the German and EMU manufacturing sector are likely to have at least remained stable in April.
After having suffered a setback, French consumer spending could have recovered in March, as French consumer confidence remained unchanged. EMU industrial new orders are expected to have decreased further in February, just as German industrial new orders did. Following the usual seasonal pattern, the EMU current account will probably have improved in February, just like the EMU trade balance.
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