Monday, April 20, 2009

EMU Economic Indicators Preview (Week of 20 to 26 April 2009)

  • German ifo business climate (April): down
  • German ZEW economic sentiment (April): slight improvement
  • PMI manufacturing indices Germany and EMU (April): stable at least

The German ZEW economic sentiment might have improved again somewhat in April, entering positive territory for the first time since July 2007. However, the ifo business climate for Germany could have deteriorated slightly further in April; the current assessment is likely to have declined, but business expectations will probably have improved, just as they, and also the US ISM manufacturing index, did in March. German yield spreads have widened somewhat, as short-term interest rates have continued declining and long-term rates have gone up slightly. The DAX has recovered recently too. However, the euro had appreciated in the first half of March and has only gone down slightly since then. The crude oil price has increased somewhat.

For similar reasons, Belgian and French business confidence and the Purchasing Managers' Indices for the German and EMU manufacturing sector are likely to have at least remained stable in April.

After having suffered a setback, French consumer spending could have recovered in March, as French consumer confidence remained unchanged. EMU industrial new orders are expected to have decreased further in February, just as German industrial new orders did. Following the usual seasonal pattern, the EMU current account will probably have improved in February, just like the EMU trade balance.


This report has been prepared by BHF-BANK Aktiengesellschaft on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies (together "BHFBANK Group") solely for the information of its clients.

The information and opinions in this document are based on sources believed to be reliable and acting in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by any member of the BHF-BANK Group as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions and recommendations are given in good faith but without legal responsibility and are subject to change without notice. The information does not constitute advice or personal recommendation, for which the duty of suitability would be owed, but may facilitate your own investment decision. Moreover, you should seek your own advice as to the suitability of an investment matter mentioned herein. Investors are reminded that the price of securities and the income from them can go down as well as up and that the past performance of an investment or a market is not necessarily indicative for future results.

This document is for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete, and this document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy the securities mentioned in it. BHF-BANK Group and its officers and employees may have a long or short position or engage in transactions in any of the securities mentioned in this document, or in any related securities.