Monday, March 9, 2009

EMU Economic Indicators Preview

(Week of 9 to 15 March 2009)

  • German industrial new orders (January): down
  • Output in the German producing sector (January): down
  • EMU industrial production (January): down

German industrial new orders and output in the German producing sector will probably have continued decreasing in January, albeit at a slightly slower pace, because the correlated climate indicators did so too, or even improved. However, French and EMU industrial production are likely to have declined more sharply in January than before. After its revision, Q4 2008 Italian GDP might not have decreased quite as steeply as initially estimated.

Following the seasonal pattern, the German trade balance might have improved in January, whereas the German current account is likely to have deteriorated.

German consumer price inflation in February is likely to be confirmed at 0.6% mom and 1.0% yoy. In the coming months, inflation is expected to decrease further due to oil price related base effects. Furthermore, the recession and the financial crisis are dampening aggregate demand, thus limiting the scope for raising prices.


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