Sunday, February 15, 2009

EMU Economic Indicators Preview

(Week of 16 to 22 February 2009)
  • German ZEW economic sentiment (February): up
  • PMI manufacturing indices Germany and EMU (February): stable at least

The German ZEW economic sentiment might have improved in February, just as the ifo business expectations and the US ISM manufacturing index did in January. The German yield spread has improved, because short-term interest rates have continued declining while long-term rates have gone up. The euro has depreciated and the crude oil price seems to have stabilised at a low level. However, the DAX has been fluctuating at low levels too.

The French business confidence and the Purchasing Managers' Indices for the German and EMU manufacturing sector could have stabilised or even improved in February, because some of the ifo indicators relating to new orders went up in January. The EMU trade balance is likely to have deteriorated in December, like the corresponding German figure.


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