- First regional June PMIs are likely to remain in negative territory
- Producer price inflation could have accelerated in May, particularly due to energy
- Housing starts and permits will probably have corrected downwards in May
- Industrial production and leading indicators could have stagnated in May
Indicator | Date | BHF
forecast | Consensus
forecast | Previous | |||||||||
NY Empire manuf. index / June | Mon 16 Jun, 14:30 | -4.0 | -1.5 | -3.2 | |||||||||
Net foreign security purch. / Apr | Mon 16 Jun. 15:00 | $68.0bn | $63.3bn | $80.4bn | |||||||||
NAHB housing market index / Jun | Mon 16 Jun, 19:00 | 19 | 19 | 19 | |||||||||
Current account balance / Q1 | Tue 17 Jun. 14:30 | -$172.0bn | -$173.3bn | -$172.9bn | |||||||||
Producer prices (PPI) / May | Tue 17 Jun, 14:30 | 1.0% mom
6.8% yoy | 1.0% mom
6.8% yoy | 0.2% mom
6.5% yoy | |||||||||
PPI ex food & energy / May | Tue 17 Jun, 14:30 | 0.2% mom
3.0% yoy | 0.2% mom
3.0% yoy | 0.4% mom
3.0% yoy | |||||||||
Housing starts / May
Building permits / May | Tue 17 Jun,14:30 | 980k
980k | 980k
960k | 1032k
982k | |||||||||
Industrial production / May
Capacity utilization / May | Tue 17 Jun, 15:15 | 0.0% mom
79.7% | 0.1% mom
79.7% | -0.7% mom
79.7% | |||||||||
Initial jobless claims / 14 Jun | Thur 19 Jun. 14:30 | 380k | 375k | 384k | |||||||||
Philadelphia Fed index / Jun | Thur 19 Jun, 16:00 | -9.0 | -10.0 | -15.6 | |||||||||
Leading indicators / May | Thur 19 Jun, 16:00 | 0.0% mom | 0.0% mom | 0.1% mom |
We forecast that the Q1 current account deficit will have reached $172bn, more or less at the same level as in the fourth quarter. Although the trade deficit was marginally higher, net investment income could have shown another big surplus due to the dollar depreciation having induced US companies to repatriate profits.
Producer prices (PPI) only went up by 0.2% mom in April, as food prices were stable and energy prices actually declined, partly because of the seasonal adjustment process. However, we already know that import prices rose sharply in April and May, and the ISM price component also increased further. We forecast that PPI will have risen by 1.0% mom (6.8% yoy) in May, mainly due to energy and food prices. Core PPI, which had surprisingly gone up by 0.4% mom in April because of higher prices for furniture and cars, could have risen more moderately by 0.2% mom (3.0% yoy) in May.
Housing starts rebounded by 8.2% mom, but this was only a partial reversal of the March plunge, and single-family starts fell further. Given the relatively low level of building permits we expect housing starts to have fallen back to 980k in May. Building permits, which also rose in April, are unlikely to have improved further.
Initial jobless claims bounced back from 357k to 384k in the week ending 7 June, raising the 4-week moving average to more than 370k again. Continuing claims have also been trending upwards and have reached 3.139m - an increase of 750k from the last cyclical low in 2006. We expect the labour market weakness to continue, and thus initial jobless claims could have remained at about 380k in the week ending 14 June.
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